Vaca Muerta Model and Narrative Report

The Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana project is an unconventional oil & gas development located in the southwest of Argentina and started operations in 2013. Expectations were high that the development of Vaca Muerta might allow Argentina to return to energy self-sufficiency, and obtain revenue from oil and gas exports – emulating the transformative success achieved in the United States. Three years later, it looks unviable under the original stated assumptions without massive subsidies.

● At current prices, the project needs up to $9 billion in subsidies to be viable.
● Cost savings need to exceed 25% (versus 2013 predictions) for the project to be viable without subsidies.
● Any fiscal regime concession would only have marginal impact on the project’s profitability.