Vaca Muerta Model and Narrative report

This page contains the Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana Fiscal Model and accompanying narrative report, that have been developed in partnership with Andres Knobel, a lawyer and representative of Tax Justice Network in Buenos Aires.

The Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana project is an unconventional oil & gas development located in the southwest of Argentina and started operations in 2013. Expectations were high that the development of Vaca Muerta might allow Argentina to return to energy self-sufficiency, and obtain revenue from oil and gas exports – emulating the transformative success achieved in the United States.

Three years later, it looks unviable under the original stated assumptions without massive subsidies.

This report is the fourth of a series of such financial model releases that have been produced during the OpenOil Financial Modeling Sprint.


Narrative report: Vaca Muerta

Main findings:

● At current prices, the project needs up to $9 billion in subsidies to be viable.

● Cost savings need to exceed 25% (versus 2013 predictions) for the project to be viable without subsidies.

● Any fiscal regime concession would only have marginal impact on the project’s profitability.

For media inquiries:
Johnny West, Director,
Olumide Abimbola, Head of R&D,

Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana Project Fiscal Model


Click on the chart to download a copy of the full model for your own use, under CC-BY-SA 4.0 license.

Supporting documents:

Interview with Andres Knobel, the modeler

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