Turkana Model and Narrative Report

This page contains the Turkana oil project fiscal model and accompanying narrative report, that have been developed in partnership with InVhestia, an East African financial advisory firm.

Turkana is Kenya’s first oilfield. Discovered in 2012 by the Anglo-Irish firm Tulllow, estimated oil in place has reached over three billion barrels, appraisal is underway and a final investment decision (FID) is due in 2019. The Turkana discovery has aroused great interest in Kenya, which has licensed many other blocks but has no commercial oil development yet.

ot_cover_outlines

Narrative report: Turkana

The report and financial model, prepared according to the FAST financial modelling standard, attempt to address major questions of public interest, including:
● What levels of revenues are likely to flow to county government?

● What scale of project is likely to be developed under an FID taken in 2019?

● What will be the effect of state participation rights of up to 20% in the fields, to be exercised by the National Oil Corporation of Kenya?

● What are key factors in determining the project economics and profitability of the Turkana South Lokichar fields?

● What is “government take” in the project under various price and cost assumptions?

The main findings of the model and analysis are:
● Caps on revenue flows to county government are unlikely to be hit

● The Final Investment Decision (FID) projected for 2019 is likely to be for over 600 million barrels, not the “Foundation Stage”.

● A 20% participation of National Oil Company NOCK will not yield extra profits until the 2030s.

● Government take is in the low 60s% under most scenarios.

● Pipeline and grade of oil are key elements in – and the economics of the project are still not locked in.

For media inquiries:
Johnny West, Director, johnny.west@openoil.net

Turkana Oil Project Fiscal Model:

screen-shot-2016-11-04-at-14-13-55

Click on the chart to download a copy of the full model for your own use, under CC-BY-SA 4.0 license.

Comments are closed.