Model library: FAST compliant full project models

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Example fiscal report: Vaca Muerta, Argentina.

This page contains a list of all models and narrative reports that have been produced during the sprint, following OpenOil’s standardized open-­source approach to financial modeling, and that will be released over the coming weeks.

OpenOil has adopted the FAST standard of financial modeling to build a worldwide network of practitioners from civil society and government who can share tools, skills and experience, and collaborate to make financial modeling available to a wider set of stakeholders. About 180 people from 0ver 20 countries are currently enrolled in various stages of skills acquisition and collaboration.

For inquiries: Johnny West, johnny.west@openoil.net
 

Yaoure tax holiday costs Cote d’Ivoire $120 million

Yaoure gold mine is the first financial model of a major extractives project in the country known to have been developed substantially by government officials themselves. The results are revealing at a couple of levels. Cote d’Ivoire has had a policy of a holiday on Corporate Income Tax in place for at least 20 years. Against a base scenario, over $120 million of tax revenues will be foregone in its first five years of production. What the Yaoure model then answers is: what would the investor’s rate of return be if the tax holiday were cancelled? And the answer is: a still fairly handsome post-tax Internal Rate of Return of 25%.

Yaoure Narrative Report Yaoure Model

 

Argentina’s flagship shale project would need billions of dollars of subsidies

The Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana project is an unconventional oil & gas development located in the southwest of Argentina and started operations in 2013. Expectations were high that the development of Vaca Muerta might allow Argentina to return to energy self-sufficiency, and obtain revenue from oil and gas exports – emulating the transformative success achieved in the United States.

Three years later, it looks unviable under the original stated assumptions without massive subsidies.

Vaca Muerta Narrative Report Vaca Muerta Model

 

Indonesia: model + new EITI data = answers on how mining regime is applied

Batu Hijau is the second biggest copper producer in Indonesia, operated by Newmont Mining under a 4th Indonesia’s Generation Contract of Work. Discovered in 1990, commercial production began in late 1999 and led to the production of 7.3 billion pounds of copper and 7.1 million ounces of gold to date.

How has the 2014 change in the royalty regime impacted the project economics? How much did past hedging losses cost Indonesia? Has the mine’s profitability recovered from a sharp short-term drop off in production and revenues in 2014-15?

Batu Hijau Narrative Report Batu Hijau Model Batu Hijau Presentation

 

Current uranium price needs to double for Malawi’s biggest mine to reopen

Kayelekera uranium mine is the biggest mining project in Malawi’s history and began production in 2009. In 2013, revenues from the mine contributed 2.6% to Gross Domestic Product. Yet production at Kayelekera was suspended as a result of the crash in uranium prices following the Fukushima nuclear accident.

What uranium price would be required to restart production? What has total government take been to date? Which impact did the reduction in the general royalty rate have?

Kayelekera Narrative Report Kayelekera Model Kayelekera Presentation

 

Brazil’s $90 billion Libra field in trouble – says public data

Brazil’s Libra project is an offshore oilfield that could produce 1.3 million BOPD. But the consortium signed the PSC expecting higher oil prices. With current oil prices ($50 a barrel in Oct. 2016), Libra is unviable unless costs can be reduced significantly, and/or the fiscal regime is renegotiated – particularly the royalty. The project schedule has already slipped – which we think reflects theses challenges – and it may slip further. We will keep a look out for fiscal regime renegotiation…

Libra Narrative Report Libra Model Libra Presentation

 

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