Model library: FAST compliant full project models


Example narrative report: Vaca Muerta, Argentina.

This page contains a list of all models and narrative reports that have been built by OpenOil and partners, following OpenOil’s standardized open-­source approach to financial modeling.

OpenOil has adopted the FAST standard of financial modeling to build a worldwide network of practitioners from civil society and government who can share tools, skills and experience, and collaborate to make financial modeling available to a wider set of stakeholders. About 180 people from over 20 countries are currently enrolled in various stages of skills acquisition and collaboration.

For inquiries: Johnny West,

Modelling of Tullow’s Turkana in Kenya shows the economics are still not locked in

The Turkana discovery has aroused great interest in Kenya, which has licensed many other blocks but has no commercial oil development yet. It came as Kenya introduced new rules to share revenues from natural resources, part of a broader move to strengthen the county governments in the East African country. The newly elected government of President Kenyatta has also stated that exploitation of the country’s natural resources forms a key part of planned economic growth over the next few years.

Turkana Narrative Report ||   Turkana Model


Guyana’s oil deal is outlier low: government takes just over half

Guyana’s first and major oil deal, with ExxonMobil, produces results for the government which are outlier low, an OpenOil financial model reveals. Over the life of the project the government should expect to see from 52% to 54% of profits, compared to well over 60% in a cluster of comparable projects signed in other frontier countries. The gap could cost the small South American country billions of dollars, as successful drilling continues apace in the Stabroek field, and recoverable reserves figures climb into the billions of barrels.

Stabroek Narrative Report ||   Stabroek Model


Yaoure tax holiday costs Cote d’Ivoire $120 million

Yaoure gold mine is the first financial model of a major extractives project in the country known to have been developed substantially by government officials themselves. The results are revealing at a couple of levels. Cote d’Ivoire has had a policy of a holiday on Corporate Income Tax in place for at least 20 years. Against a base scenario, over $120 million of tax revenues will be foregone in its first five years of production. What the Yaoure model then answers is: what would the investor’s rate of return be if the tax holiday were cancelled? And the answer is: a still fairly handsome post-tax Internal Rate of Return of 25%.

Yaoure Narrative Report  || Yaoure Model


Argentina’s flagship shale project would need billions of dollars of subsidies

The Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana project is an unconventional oil & gas development located in the southwest of Argentina and started operations in 2013. Expectations were high that the development of Vaca Muerta might allow Argentina to return to energy self-sufficiency, and obtain revenue from oil and gas exports – emulating the transformative success achieved in the United States.

Three years later, it looks unviable under the original stated assumptions without massive subsidies.

Vaca Muerta Narrative Report || Vaca Muerta Model


Indonesia: model + new EITI data = answers on how mining regime is applied

Batu Hijau is the second biggest copper producer in Indonesia, operated by Newmont Mining under a 4th Indonesia’s Generation Contract of Work. Discovered in 1990, commercial production began in late 1999 and led to the production of 7.3 billion pounds of copper and 7.1 million ounces of gold to date.

How has the 2014 change in the royalty regime impacted the project economics? How much did past hedging losses cost Indonesia? Has the mine’s profitability recovered from a sharp short-term drop off in production and revenues in 2014-15?

Batu Hijau Narrative Report || Batu Hijau Model || Batu Hijau Presentation


Current uranium price needs to double for Malawi’s biggest mine to reopen

Kayelekera uranium mine is the biggest mining project in Malawi’s history and began production in 2009. In 2013, revenues from the mine contributed 2.6% to Gross Domestic Product. Yet production at Kayelekera was suspended as a result of the crash in uranium prices following the Fukushima nuclear accident.

What uranium price would be required to restart production? What has total government take been to date? Which impact did the reduction in the general royalty rate have?

Kayelekera Narrative Report ||Kayelekera Model ||Kayelekera Presentation


Brazil’s $90 billion Libra field in trouble – says public data

Brazil’s Libra project is an offshore oilfield that could produce 1.3 million BOPD. But the consortium signed the PSC expecting higher oil prices. With current oil prices ($50 a barrel in Oct. 2016), Libra is unviable unless costs can be reduced significantly, and/or the fiscal regime is renegotiated – particularly the royalty. The project schedule has already slipped – which we think reflects theses challenges – and it may slip further. We will keep a look out for fiscal regime renegotiation…

Libra Narrative Report || Libra Model ||Libra Presentation

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