Kayelekera Model & Narrative Report

This page contains the Kayelekera Project Fiscal Model, the accompanying narrative report, and a shortform presentation. It is the second of 10 such models OpenOil will be publishing in the next few weeks.

Kayelekera uranium mine is the biggest mining project in Malawi’s history and began production in 2009. In 2013, revenues from the mine contributed 2.6% to Gross Domestic Product. Yet production at Kayelekera was suspended as a result of the crash in uranium prices following the Fukushima nuclear accident.

What uranium price would be required to restart production? What has total government take been to date? Which impact did the reduction in the general royalty rate have?

The main findings of OpenOil’s model and analysis are:


Narrative report: Kayelekera, Malawi.

● Kayelekera needs a breakeven price of $58/lb to reopen (October 2016 uranium spot price is $20-26/lb)

● Paladin Africa has lost $387 million to date

● Government revenue is $12 million to date

● Reduction of the general royalty rate for this project has cost $15 million so far

● Further reducing the royalty would make only a marginal difference to the breakeven price for restarting production

For media inquiries:
Johnny West, Director, johnny.west@openoil.net
Olumide Abimbola, Head of R&D, olumide.abimbola@openoil.net

Kayelekera Project Fiscal Model


Click on the chart to download a copy of the full model for your own use, under CC-BY-SA 4.0 license.

Supporting documents

Interviews with the modelers

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