Guyana’s oil deal is outlier low: government takes just over half

FAST-Compliant Financial Model   Stabroek Narrative Report Guyana’s first and major oil deal, with ExxonMobil, produces results for the government which are outlier low, an OpenOil financial model reveals. Over the life of the project the government should expect to see from 52% to 54% of profits, compared to well over 60% in a cluster more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Lebanon’s new gas contract: everyone just take a breath!

The news that Lebanon had finally signed a contract for gas exploration in its offshore has set off a flurry of speculation in national and international media. A leading bank in the country produced a report suggesting the government could earn up to $200 billion in revenues from the deal, turn the public deficit into more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Running the Numbers: ADB and OpenOil launch report on government modeling

Geneva, 19 October 2017 – The African Development Bank (AfDB) and OpenOil, a Berlin-based financial analysis firm, have jointly produced a new report on how African governments use financial models to manage oil & gas and mining projects. The report was launched at the 13th Annual General Meeting of the Intergovernmental Forum on Mining, Minerals, more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Yaoure tax holiday costs Cote d’Ivoire $120 million

The publication of the financial model of Yaoure gold mine shows what can be done: both in the tricky area of what tax incentives offer, and in terms of building government analytical capacity. OpenOil, with support from the German Corporation for International Cooperation (GIZ), worked with colleagues from Cote d’Ivoire’s Ministry of Mines to build more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Where are your country’s oil projects on the “Climate Change Supply Curve”?

The latest report from Carbon Tracker Initiative, a non-profit analysis house in London, suggest that up to a third of currently planned oil and gas projects may now never go ahead because of climate change policy. In “2D of Separation”, CTI presents the potential risks to shareholders and investors in the world’s largest fossil fuel more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Reputable Mining Investors Wanted in Sierra Leone: How to Improve Integrity Due Diligence in Mining License Management

On the first anniversary of the Panama Papers, the National Minerals Agency (NMA) of Sierra Leone wants to know who they are doing business with. The NMA is the government agency responsible for issuing mining licenses. Beny Steinmetz of Simandou fame, is one such mining investor who has prompted the NMA to strengthen integrity due more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Is Tanzania’s export ban a high stakes game of poker with Acacia?

OpenOil’s Excel model on the Bulyanhulu mine  is available to view the workings of the conclusions in this post.  Tanzania’s decision to impose a ban on concentrate exports from its mining industry has gained wide coverage among industry watchers. The question is: what does the government hope to achieve with it, and what will companies’ more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

How to build a robust model with almost no data

After doing the OpenOil training I had to choose a project I was interested in modeling. The joint venture between YPF and Chevron to exploit shale gas and oil in Vaca Muerta (South West of Argentina) was the obvious option. It had been all over the news, since the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) had more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana model

The Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana project is an unconventional oil & gas development located in the southwest of Argentina. It started operations in 2013. Developing the latent Stage 2 model from solely total figures was a challenge Andres Knobel successfully went through. This page contains the Vaca Muerta-Loma Campana Fiscal Model, the accompanying narrative report, and more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

El proyecto estrella de shale en Argentina implicaría miles de millones de dólares en subvenciones

Fuera de Estados Unidos, el mayor proyecto de shale en el mundo se ubica en la cuenca de Vaca Muerta, en Argentina. Este no es viable bajo las condiciones de mercado y suposiciones vigentes, a menos que el gobierno de Argentina esté dispuesto a mantener subvenciones en petróleo y gas de hasta 9 mil millones more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Argentina’s flagship shale project would need billions of dollars of subsidies

The largest shale project in the world outside the North America, in the Vaca Muerta basin in Argentina, is not viable under current market conditions and stated assumptions – unless the government of Argentina is prepared to maintain oil and gas subsidies of up to $9 billion. That is the leading result of the model more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Indonesia: model + new EITI data = answers on how mining regime is applied

No single issue dominates the third model in OpenOil’s collaborative series with partners, that of the Batu Hijau copper and gold mine in Indonesia (model and project documents), with Maryati Abdullah (interview) and Rizki Ananda (interview) of Publish What You Pay Indonesia. But, like all of the models, there were a number of interesting findings more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Five reasons to model at the project level

The portfolio of models OpenOil is releasing with partners are all at the project level. Normally speaking, this involves building a view of the financial flows for the investor and government from a single mine or oil field. But of course modelling can be applied at the macro-level as well, seeking to address questions like: more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Brazil’s $90 billion Libra field in trouble – says public data

We are delighted to publish the first in our series of open financial models to be produced with teams from government, civil society and the private sector from all over the world – using only publicly available information Brazil’s Libra field has been the subject of intense public interest since the deal for it was more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Press Release: Mongolian Government Unlikely to Receive Dividends from Oyu Tolgoi until 2035

Press Release For Immediate Use Berlin, 26 October 2016 – Oyu Tolgoi is the biggest foreign investment in the history of Mongolia, but the country probably won’t get any dividends from its direct stake in this massive mining project for at least another twenty years — if any at all. That’s according to a first-of-its-kind research more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Aleph and beneficial ownership: working up from the ground

Within the EITI process, the issue of beneficial ownership has gained momentum. After a successful pilot phase to which 11 countries voluntarily signed up, the 2016 EITI standard now requires all 51 implementing countries  to ensure that companies disclose their beneficial owners. These are early days, however, and so far reporting on beneficial ownership is more »

Category: Blogs, EITI, OpenOil blogs, Transparency · Tags:

The Panama Papers, corporate filings and the “bad guy” / “sharp guy” issues

Oil geek question: what do ConocoPhillips, Halliburton and Schlumberger have in common? Well… they all share the fact that they have, or at least at one point had, Panama incorporated subsidiaries. So why is that, if Panama isn’t actually producing any oil, as the U.S. Energy Information Administration states on their website? With the Panama more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

How do mandatory disclosures relate to EITI figures?

This year’s introduction of mandatory disclosures in France and the UK will bring about a considerable amount of reports listing extractive companies’ payments to governments. The mandatory disclosures promise increased transparency, however, we are only at the beginning of a debate on how to best make use of the new data. One idea has already more »

Category: EITI, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Using Aleph: 5 tips and tricks to find out about what extractive companies tell their investors

Every week thousands of pages are filed by extractive companies to stock exchanges across the globe, containing valuable information on oil, gas and mining operations worldwide. Through such disclosures, investors, regulators and researchers can update themselves on any listed company’s financial situation, the economics of particular oil or mining projects, newly signed host-government contracts, changes more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Let’s not make the Paris Agreement the “Elephant in the Room”

In my first post I referred to how the Paris agreement mentions transparency, which in the text is confined to transparency around carbon accounting and the disbursement of the huge financial aid that is an integral part of the agreement. Neither of which relate directly to transparency of the upstream in extractive industries, which is more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Introducing Aleph: everything companies tell investors, in one place

Part I: why collect corporate filings? Can the world understand oil and mining companies as well as their investors do? We think it’s possible, and we’ve been hard at work building a tool to make it so. Our goal is: everything extractives companies tell investors, in one place. The result is Aleph, our new search more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Is a 12% interest rate by Glencore to itself in Mauritania “normal”?

Glencore has a 79% stake in an iron ore project at Askaf North in Mauritania, via its 88% owned subsidiary Sphere Resources, which is incorporated in Australia. Sphere states in its 2014 annual report that it took a loan from Glencore at an interest rate of 12% per annum for the project. Separately, in March more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

The open data map of oil concessions extends to 18 countries in the Middle East

OpenOil is happy to announce the second stage of the world’s first open data map of oil concessions – the Middle East and North Africa. The addition includes 18 jurisdictions across the region, from Oman and Iraqi Kurdistan in the east to Algeria and Morocco in the West, making a total now of 53 jurisdictions more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

An Open Data Concession Map of the World – Part I, Sub-Saharan Africa

For the past year, OpenOil has collected oil concession data from all continents as a contribution to what we believe holds the potential to revolutionise natural resource management across the globe: an open data framework around the extractive industries. Today, we are pleased to announce its next evolution – the first open oil concession map more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

What happens when you can search 30 million words of oil contracts?

OpenOil today releases the fourth version of the contracts repository. As my colleague Anton Rühling writes, there are another 83 contracts, from 29 countries, and some interesting material around the Brazilian state oil company Petrobras, currently at the middle of major corruption scandals. But along with the new contracts comes a feature we hope will more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Core Petrobras Field tops new entrants to the repository, now 800 contracts strong

It’s almost been a year since we have first launched the OpenOil contracts repository and we are happy to today announce our fourth update: 83 new full-text agreements, including new host government contracts from countries such as Colombia, Egypt, Libya, Mongolia, Portugal and most notably Brazil, taking the total past the 800 mark. As we more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Putting open data all together – the Tanzania pilot

For the past year, OpenOil has researched various aspects of open data on extractive industries. First we looked at corporate mapping – creating a network map of BP’s 1,200 subsidiaries across 84 countries with our colleagues at OpenCorporates. Then, with PWYP in Canada, we searched systematically for contracts disclosed by companies, which led to the more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Repository 3rd edition release – 723 contracts from 72 countries

We are happy to announce the third edition of the contracts repository, with 200 new contracts and 18 new countries. The repository now totals 723 contracts from 72 countries. One feature of the new release we are excited by is the inclusion of what we call “auxiliary” contracts – those signed by two private oil more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

Public interest modeling is the entry point, not the grand finale, of transparency work

Models are powerful tools. So powerful in fact that the discussion of whether they should be unleashed into the public space has sometimes been accompanied by a discussion of the “dangers” of doing so – reminiscent of the first debates around the idea of transparency itself. General thinking has been that models are a stage more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs, Uncategorized · Tags:

Modeling: Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good

I opened this series by saying that public interest models of extractive industry projects did not serve only the purposes financial models have been used for to date but had, in addition to their analytical function, the three other main functions of pedagogy, advocacy and strengthening government support. In this post I will focus on more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags:

The four functions of public interest models

We, and others, have made the case before that open financial models is the natural next stage of extractives governance. First, because you don’t know what you’ve got til its modeled, and secondly, the models themselves must be open to allow the cumulative learning that is really important for independent expertise to take hold. In more »

Category: Blogs, OpenOil blogs · Tags: